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Statistics show, you should own a fire arm

Discussion in 'General Firearms Discussion' started by Atlas, May 7, 2018.

  1. Atlas

    Atlas Administrator Staff Member Survival Class Instructor

    Mar 4, 2016
    Likes Received:
    Here is some food for thought.

    The Surprisingly Solid Mathematical Case of the Tin Foil Hat Gun Prepper

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    What is the risk of needing an AR-15 to survive a severe civil conflict (defined as revolution or civil war) during your 62 adult years, given the history of such conflicts on the landmass known today as United States since people of white European-ancestry have been in permanent residence upon same?

    The math is simple: 1 - (cumulative odds of NOT having it happen over 62 years), or in arithmetic notation 1 - (0.9949 ^ 62)

    Ready for the result?

    It's 27.17% -- higher than your house flooding if you live in a 100 year flood plain.

    What if we keep taking in immigrants who refuse to assimilate and we become more socialist much as Europe has done over the last several hundred years -- and our risk in fact looks like theirs based on the last 100 years? What is the risk you will need that AR-15 during your adult lifetime in that case, which I think is a fair argument on the risk we take today given that we refuse to secure our borders and expel those who are here illegally now, never mind taking in "refugees" who are not required to demonstrate their respect for and intent to honor our Constitutional protections?

    Sitting down?


    That's right -- there is a 71.4% chance that Europe will suffer a war of similarity to WWI and WWII during a person's adult lifetime, based on the two World Wars. It's not much different odds, incidentally, if you start enumerating all the other wide scale wars (civil and otherwise) on the European Continent all the way back to the time of the Roman Empire!

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