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New Study Reveals Where To Go When Civilization Collapses: “Head For The Hills"

Discussion in 'The Main Board' started by twp, Sep 28, 2018.

  1. twp

    twp Moderator Staff Member Survival Class Instructor

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    While the premise of the research was very "tongue-in-cheek" (a zombie infection), the result can AND SHOULD BE applied to many of the risk factors for which we prep.

    This is worth reading and I direct your attention to the links at the bottom of the article for both references and further discussion.

    Full Scale Simulation: New Study Reveals Where To Go When Civilization Collapses: “Head For The Hills” - The Organic Prepper

    There are arguments surrounding bug-in vs bug-out. This scenario falls firmly in the bug-out camp and should be a consideration for Every Prepper.

    Let me push the buttons anyway. Yes, there are situations in which a bug-in is preferable. These are mostly short-term events which are expected to get better and offer a return to "life as usual". By "short-term", I mean less than a year or two. Examples of this are the hurricane and earthquake events which happen around the world, with relative frequency.

    The other position of this "button" relates to events which are expected to be truly long-term and result in a change in our lifestyle and society. Examples of this are pandemics which kill a large part of the human population of the world, a large meteor strike which changes world weather conditions for years afterwards or a return to either a new ice-age or an era of higher temperatures. The operative term: "long term event", means there will not be a return to our current lifestyle and society.

    This is why we make plans and stockpile for the future. Some of us act to change our current situation, some of us are not yet ready to act. That is NOT a judgement call on either group. It is what it is. What is important is that we all be aware of the risk factors and hopefully take some kind of action to increase our chances of survival.
     
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  2. lonewolf

    lonewolf Well-Known Member

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    in some situations, like someone living in a large city, a bug out may be the order of the day, but if everyone else is doing the same that bug out could get one killed, it may be better to sit tight and go AFTER everyone else has left.
    in another situation, someone already living in a rural situation, like myself, may not need to go at all.
    horses for courses, we may never know which is the correct course of action, it could alter with every different event.
     
  3. tulpa23

    tulpa23 Well-Known Member

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    I’m afraid our health, especially DW, leans toward bug-in. We are near a small city, several miles out, ag area. We have room for some family members if they can get here.
     
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  4. Atlas

    Atlas Administrator Staff Member Survival Class Instructor

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    Health is a reason why many people do not bug out, no matter what. It's easy to say "why didn't all those people just leave when the warning came?" But health is usually the reason why.
     
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  5. jimLE

    jimLE Well-Known Member

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    My issue of not bugging out.is because i have no place to bug out to.
     
  6. Atlas

    Atlas Administrator Staff Member Survival Class Instructor

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    I believe that there are 3 main reasons actually. Health, no place to go and lack of money. Usually they run into each other and combine to make matters worse.
     
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  7. twp

    twp Moderator Staff Member Survival Class Instructor

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    We fall in two of those three categories. But I still have located some places as BOLs. I may not own them, but, assuming a catastrophe which is big enough to necessitate that we leave here, I have places to go toward. They might be temporary, but they options.
     
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  8. Sally Rudd

    Sally Rudd Well-Known Member

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    I, like a couple of other live in a city. By US standards it's not a big city and I can walk out of it in under an hour. And therein lies the rub for me. I have no transport (apart from bicycles and trolleys) I probably would have to walk out. I do have a couple of places scouted out that I don't own, but they are effectively abandoned.
    I've always thought it's the biggest dilemma the average prepper faces, whether to bug in or out. Let's face it, we spend most of our time producing, preserving or storing foodstuffs and kit, in some cases enough to last years. That could all be for naught in the case of a natural localised disaster such as has been experienced in Florida this week or the Flash flooding experienced in Malta. I'm often reminded of Burt Gummer's ruminations on the roof of his home in Tremors, "Food for five years, a thousand gallons of gas, air filtration, water filtration, Geiger counter. Bomb shelter! Underground... God damn monsters"
     
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  9. twp

    twp Moderator Staff Member Survival Class Instructor

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    Sally, you point out the problems. We too have all our prepper stuff in one place, with the exception of a few, very small caches (knife, flashlight) in easy walking distance.

    There remains the problem of having to leave all or most of our stockpile if we must leave our home (bug out).

    We also lack a motor vehicle, so the amount of stuff we can carry with us is very limited. I have a bicycle trailer which can carry about 100 pounds/6 cu. ft. of gear and food.

    I really wish I could afford to rent a storage locker in a safe place. I tried that, but the price kept going up and finally went past my willingness/ability to pay. Those lockers also may not be accessible if the power goes down or the locker facility is closed by the owner.

    If I had a motor vehicle, I would be searching for better and bigger cache locations and scouting BOLs. I have several locations which might be suitable, but I haven't been to any of them, physically, in years, so I don't know what they look like, now.

    Another option is friends/fellow preppers who might be willing to store part of our stockpile in a reciprocal agreement (we keep part of their stuff and vice versa). My local prepper friends have no space for this kind of agreement...

    So, we have plans for alternative courses of action, depending on the situation. It what Preppers do.
     
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  10. twp

    twp Moderator Staff Member Survival Class Instructor

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  11. jimLE

    jimLE Well-Known Member

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    I have a small car. A Kia rondo.. That'll allow me to be out of town, in 2 minuteseasy. And that's taking 1 of 4 directions to get out. 20 to 30 minutes on foot, in same directions. Thing about the Kia. I'm very limited to what I can take with me, if I had to bug out. And of coarse food, drink, and 1st aid supplies 1st.with a very slim chance of all my camping gear. I just thought of the luggage rack on it's roof. Which I should of before now. I need more fastening straps. 2 totes of camping gear on the roof. Maybe another tote or 2 as well. I already have 2 tarps. Fasten down the totes. Then a tarp over them. And everything else goes inside..
     
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  12. Sally Rudd

    Sally Rudd Well-Known Member

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    Our situations are very similar, twp and I've often considered a lock up as well. However, probably like you, there is only so much money and resources to go round and frankly, that sort of thing is low down on the list when day to day living expenses take precedence. It's easy for this prepping lark to take over so it's not just lack of funds and resources, it's trying to keep a sense of balance in life. So for the time being, I would leave only if I had no other option.
     
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  13. lonewolf

    lonewolf Well-Known Member

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    trying to bug out in any sort of motorised vehicle is probably unwise, especially after the power goes down or after the first 24 hours when all the filling stations are empty, the main highways are going to end up as glorified parking lots full of broken down and out of fuel vehicles. eventually and fairly soon anybody attempting this will be relegated to walking and that means they will only be able to take what they can comfortably carry.
    and of course any bug out route should have been scouted, in advance, long before any event ever occurred. and preferably more than one route in case the original is compromised.
     
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2018
  14. jimLE

    jimLE Well-Known Member

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    I agree with you sally.but yet,only up to a point.I'm thinking that a person or family can get out of town.but yet only IF they planed ahead.which includes at least 2 or 3 routes for each bug out location.even then.each person needs to be keeping a eye on things.that includes people within a certain distance.each bug out route.just in case 1 route ends up to dangerous or congested. Pluss ,a person will know when to get to bug out,IF they see the tail tell signs for what they are,when they see them..this reminds me.i still need to get a up to date detailed city map of where i live.so i can do a better job of planning my bug out routes.then drive the different routes,untill i know them .
     
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  15. Atlas

    Atlas Administrator Staff Member Survival Class Instructor

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    I've said it before, but I have several bug out locations located in several different geographical areas. I am very blessed to have these, and most of that has come in the last couple of years. Having a place scouted out before hand is going to be imperative. Having a car may or may not be a deal breaker, only time will tell.
     
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  16. Watcher

    Watcher New Member

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    I think it depends on the scenario that is unfolding. If the emergency alerts go off, and nuclear war is declared, you best bunker down fast where you are and plan for several weeks of not venturing outside. An EMP/CME get someplace where you can produce some food, cities will quickly become death traps. A slow moving financial collapse like Venezuela you have more time, but many are deceived by false hope that things will get better, and stay too long. The coming Grand Solar Minimum, learn to produce food, maybe head south, or NW. Prepare for famine's and disease. each case ends up the same by different routes. Food, Water, Shelter self defense.
     
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  17. Atlas

    Atlas Administrator Staff Member Survival Class Instructor

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    That is exactly right. Thinking that there is one solution for all events is not a good idea. It really is best to have multiple plans including both staying in place and bugging out on several levels.
     
  18. twp

    twp Moderator Staff Member Survival Class Instructor

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    Watcher; You are correct. Which is why I have multiple plans of action.

    It is fortunate that there is a overlap with the various parts of prepper plans. Food, water, shelter and protection are common elements in most SHTF scenarios, hence they get the majority of my prepping efforts.

    As you noted, there are more specific elements to some disaster scenarios which call for more detailed actions, for instance, an EMP/CME carries the problem of loss of many of the amenities which we enjoy now. Not having electrical power to the degree we do now will mean limits on what we can do (communications, lights, heating). We also face the loss of fuel access, since we can only store so much gasoline, diesel, propane, butane. These become rationed commodities and need plans for their use and replacement with other fuels. I don't plan on reverting to a lifestyle based solely on wood fires. Recovery is part of my plans.

    I've looked at my current lifestyle and asked the question; how can I retain some (not all) of the amenities which I use? I do have backup sources for some (again, not all) of the tools which I use daily right now. I've also formulated some plans on how to locate and repair some of the things which would make life easier; for example, solar power panels may be available in a post disaster world, as will car batteries. I know how to build a methane production plant, on the scale of a single family or very small community.

    RE TEOTWAWKI;

    Before I get hit with the argument that a post-apocalypse world will be more like a Mad Max movie... Yes, there is likely to be a period where simple survival has the highest priority, but my plans include the period AFTER that social collapse, when rebuilding has begun. I do expect a recovery after a truly worldwide collapse. For any events less severe, some parts of human society will survive more or less intact.

    But, what if the world doesn't end with a bang?

    Since many of the events for which we prep are local and individual, like a flat tire in the desert or a local flood, we all have (I hope) plans for handling them. Those possible events may be ranked on a scale of severity from the nasty hangnail to anything short of actual death. Some of my plans even extend past my possible death... I do have other people in my life and my plans include them.
     
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  19. lonewolf

    lonewolf Well-Known Member

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    the time after social collapse when rebuilding can begin is likely to be measured in years not months, and what will they rebuild? the exact same systems that probably caused the collapse in the first place? I think there needs to be more thought about WHAT to "rebuild" other than "back to normal".
    after a world wide catastrophe the population numbers are likely to be a fraction of what they once were and people will be scattered far and wide.
    I think many people who don't believe in a major life changing catastrophe(and that's most people in my country) aren't aware of the ramifications such an event would bring.
    post collapse lifestyle will be: part self sufficiency, part self reliance, part subsistence food production, there will be NO outside help, NO state aid or welfare, if they cant make it or repair it, if they cant grow it, if they cant scavenge it, then they wont have it.
     
    Last edited: Oct 22, 2018

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