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Article - Why The Coming Oil Crunch Will Shock The World

Discussion in 'The Main Board' started by twp, Jul 7, 2018.

  1. twp

    twp Moderator Staff Member Survival Class Instructor

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    As a prepper, this is one of the items in my Prepper Threat Assessment (PTA) analysis.

    It goes by many names, but we'll use the author's "Oil Crunch".

    This has been discussed for many decades, with the result that there are now at least two factions. Those who expect the oil to keep flowing and those who do not.

    I'm in the second camp.

    This is a lengthy article but I recommend reading it because it will give you some perspective on the current situation.

    Why The Coming Oil Crunch Will Shock The World

    As far as a timeline on when the Oil Crunch will impact us in a major way... Some will say that we are already experiencing it, with higher oil prices and oil wars in the middle east.

    I will point out that oil prices are still a political football, driven by national policy rather than the market itself. That suggests, to me, that we are Not yet at the point of a real "crunch". Politician and oil producing businesses still have some leeway in setting prices.

    Also, some oil producing countries still have the ability to adjust their output. We are Not yet at the point where we need every bit of production just to keep society running. Not yet...

    Keep an eye on this as watch for more oil wars, both rhetorical shouting, by the politicians, and real conflicts over areas which have oil resources.
     
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  2. Atlas

    Atlas Administrator Staff Member Survival Class Instructor

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    After Y2K this came to light on a major scale. Like everything, people were expecting oil to collapse instantly and the fear mongers went to town selling their snake oil saying oil would dry up instantly one day.

    If you go back and read what people like Mike Ruppert, who I was lucky enough to see speak on the subject in 2005 or so, they were saying that it was going to be slow. Guessing on dates is never going to be accurate, but there were several methods of extracting oil that were super secret at the time and they kicked the can way down the road.

    Some things they got 100% right. I believe that Saudi oil is collapsing. Venezuela is past the collapse stage, as proven by the economic collapse.

    Did I mention that I work for a major oil company contractor? We don't talk about these things here, but that doesn't mean it doesn't exist. I'm just trying to get the money while the getting is good, personal survival. It's definitely on my prepper radar, still.
     
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  3. twp

    twp Moderator Staff Member Survival Class Instructor

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    I believe that both Saudi Arabia and Venezuela still have huge amounts of oil in the ground, but their governments and economies are unable to handle production.

    I don't expect either country to recover for many years (a decade or so?).

    When I was in college, I worked in the local refinery QC lab. We received the stuff you are hauling. Everything from raw crude to finished fuels.
     
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  4. Atlas

    Atlas Administrator Staff Member Survival Class Instructor

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    As new processes are being introduced quite often for kicking the peak oil can down the road, we may not even see the end in our lifetimes. Or it may be that something else gets us first. Who knows?
     
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  5. twp

    twp Moderator Staff Member Survival Class Instructor

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    So I look at the "fear and anxiety" being put out by the MSM companies and see it as a marketing ploy. It is beginning to wear a little thin after several decades (about the last 50 years?).

    My college professors were talking about this (peak oil) even back in the 60's-70's. Gas was around 35 cents/ gal.

    The article in my OP is exactly the case in point. Sincere sounding, calm rational thinking... but still the same message; get ready to run in circles, screaming and shouting.

    I don't hear nearly as much about energy alternatives (Wind, Hydro, Solar) and nuclear energy has some very bad history (Three Mile Island, Chernoble) which the media doesn't want to bring up. The other problems is nuclear are: 1) It can be weaponized without too many changes in the reactors. and 2) nuclear waste is just nasty stuff to have laying around...
     
  6. Atlas

    Atlas Administrator Staff Member Survival Class Instructor

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    As a prepper alternative energy is something i am concerned about now matter what the political spin is or the current impending doom is. Having alternative energy sources large and small is just part of being prepared. I am grateful that enough people are buying it to bring the costs down and demand enough that companies are bringing new inventions to market.


    I shudder at the thought of the mountain of nuclear waste buried in the deserts of Nevada. It's probably sickening to see first hand.
     
  7. twp

    twp Moderator Staff Member Survival Class Instructor

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  8. twp

    twp Moderator Staff Member Survival Class Instructor

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  9. Atlas

    Atlas Administrator Staff Member Survival Class Instructor

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    Very interesting, I will definitely be watching that one closely. I had heard rumors of something like this in the works, but then it was quite for a while. Good find!
     
  10. Atlas

    Atlas Administrator Staff Member Survival Class Instructor

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  11. Atlas

    Atlas Administrator Staff Member Survival Class Instructor

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    Did the US just do a big fat head fake when we heard that production was in decline? Or are we just going to get it over with and pump it dry?
     
  12. twp

    twp Moderator Staff Member Survival Class Instructor

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    I get "cognitive dissonance" when I hear both side; "we're running out of oil, stop pumping now" vs "we found more oil, pump faster".

    Since this is a political football, not just a commodity trading scheme, I'm going to stand back and watch. TPTB seem to assume that our US oil will last beyond their lifetimes, so they don't care...
     
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  13. Atlas

    Atlas Administrator Staff Member Survival Class Instructor

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  14. tulpa23

    tulpa23 Active Member

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    There is no doubt that the concept of Peak Oil is valid, but dates are fluid as tar sands and other developments occur. Each new field, each new development will grow, peak, and decline. Overall, the planet will have a peak, a point at which production cannot be exceeded, ever again.
     
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  15. Atlas

    Atlas Administrator Staff Member Survival Class Instructor

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    Good points.

    What ever happened to the argument the Russian were using, saying that oil was not from fossils, but a naturally replinishing part of the earth or some other BS?
     
  16. twp

    twp Moderator Staff Member Survival Class Instructor

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    Non-biogenic oil was the theory. Carbon subducted by plate tectonics was theoretically converted to oil by the pressure and temperature. Very hard to prove because of the huge time needed. Also little research on how much carbon was reaching the sea floor over time nor what was the source of that carbon. Part of the theory speculated that carbon bearing minerals such as calcium carbonate are deposited as ocean sediment, then subducted and pressure treated. And then there is the need for hydrogen (hydrocarbons need it). Water is the most likely source, subducted along with the other matter.

    I've read about the origins of our world coal deposits, which visibly contains fossilized plants. It is postulated that some of those deposits were from mega tsunamis which washed entire forests into huge piles. How else do you get piles of organic matter that is many feet thick?
     
  17. Atlas

    Atlas Administrator Staff Member Survival Class Instructor

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  18. twp

    twp Moderator Staff Member Survival Class Instructor

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    Yeah, I couldn't think of that word either. Lots of quasi-science being used there...
     
  19. Atlas

    Atlas Administrator Staff Member Survival Class Instructor

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    Any time the US says on thing and Russia says the opposite I tend to believe that neither of them are right!
     
  20. tulpa23

    tulpa23 Active Member

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    You’ve got it. BS. Read all that when I woke around 2004.
    Oil comes from dead dinosaurs, coal from dead plants, end of story. Even if oil does naturally replenish, it won’t do it fast enough to help us.
     
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