As a prepper, this is one of the items in my Prepper Threat Assessment (PTA) analysis. It goes by many names, but we'll use the author's "Oil Crunch". This has been discussed for many decades, with the result that there are now at least two factions. Those who expect the oil to keep flowing and those who do not. I'm in the second camp. This is a lengthy article but I recommend reading it because it will give you some perspective on the current situation. Why The Coming Oil Crunch Will Shock The World As far as a timeline on when the Oil Crunch will impact us in a major way... Some will say that we are already experiencing it, with higher oil prices and oil wars in the middle east. I will point out that oil prices are still a political football, driven by national policy rather than the market itself. That suggests, to me, that we are Not yet at the point of a real "crunch". Politician and oil producing businesses still have some leeway in setting prices. Also, some oil producing countries still have the ability to adjust their output. We are Not yet at the point where we need every bit of production just to keep society running. Not yet... Keep an eye on this as watch for more oil wars, both rhetorical shouting, by the politicians, and real conflicts over areas which have oil resources.