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Article - Which SHTF situation is most likely to actually happen?

Discussion in 'The Main Board' started by twp, May 5, 2019.

  1. twp

    twp Administrator Staff Member

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    This is a short list of possible events for which to prep. I'm glad to see even this short list being presented to viewers.

    https://www.newstarget.com/2019-05-04-which-shtf-situation-is-most-likely.html

    The author is mostly targeted (pun intended) on natural disasters. My own Prepper planning does take into consideration the human nature side of disasters, such as politics, war and international relations, plus events from outside our little planet like asteroids, Coronal Mass Ejections etc. My list is visible and managed here:
    https://www.prepperboards.com/threads/a-prepper-risk-assessment-chart.1341/
     
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  2. Jerry D Young

    Jerry D Young Active Member

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    Below is a list of possibilities that I take into consideration when I am acquiring preps and making plans. Some are not very likely. Some are happening all the time. Some you have probably already experienced.

    I see the things that can happen in a few major ways.
    1) They can be minor, every day things, such as a flat tire on the way to work. An annoyance, and a few bucks to correct.
    2) They can be major to me as an individual but have little or no impact on others. Such as a serious injury or illness.
    3) They can be major and occurring over a large regional area but have little direct impact on me. They might, however, have other effects such as delaying deliveries of needed resources or involve people I know that are in that area.
    4) They can be minor disasters in my area that can affect lots of people, but since I am prepared, have very little effect on me.
    5) They can be fairly common, and fairly serious, but not to the degree that we will not recover easily.
    6) They can be very unlikely, but if they do occur the problems will be huge, widespread, and could turn into TEOTWAWKI or TEOCAWKI, an apocalypse or even Armageddon.

    Many of the natural disasters will not have any prior warning. Some might have a few hours or days. The locations may or may not be predicted accurately.

    Other things will be known well ahead of time and people can obtain additional preps before whatever it is happening.

    It is much the same with human-caused disasters. Some will occur without any warning. Others could occur with some warning. And a few can be fairly accurately predicted on where, when, and how bad by those that know what to watch for, and are watching.

    Many of the things on the list share a huge number of preps required to get through them, with a group of them each requiring additional, specific equipment, supplies, plans, and other preparations.

    All of them require Basic Human Needs. The same things we do and use every day. Clean air, potable water, sustenance, maintaining our core body temperature, sanitation, etc. These are first priority, since, as the term states, they are Basic Human Needs. Not wants or options, but absolute needs.

    As to the most likely... That can be a tough call. Natural disasters can happen almost any time. Things from space usually have little or no warning. Simply to have some form of likelihood list I would say:
    1) Personal event that requires dealing with over several days and with a monetary outlay
    2) Severe weather event
    3) Widespread economic collapse
    4) Socio-Political unrest that results in major riots and fighting.
    5) Infrastructure collapse with cascading effects until the entire infrastructure is seriously impeded or destroyed
    6) Little ice-age to full ice-age (this is the big one that I think we are headed into if we do not wind up in a global nuclear war first.

    Now, on to the list.

    My Thoughts On:
    Considerations For Prep Planning
    By Jerry D Young


    As for what I prepare for, I prepare less by type of disaster than I do by basic human needs. The basic needs are pretty much the same, no matter what the disaster. As I meet my goals for the basics I do specific things for specific disasters. There really are not that many individual elements that are not appropriate for several sets of circumstances. My ultimate goal is to be as self-sufficient for as long of a period as it is practical to be in modern society.


    This is a list of the things I consider when I am making preps, in alphabetical order. The dangers in some of them relate directly to peoples’ belief in them, as much as the actual event. Some things do not have to happen to be a danger. The mere belief can be enough to set people on a destructive path.



    (No. I am not ready for all of them yet. And yes, some of them simply call for having your affairs in order.)



    1) A New Evil Charismatic Leader (Hitler /Stalin /Mao style)

    2) A New Messiah

    3) A new Persian Empire

    4) Abolishment /unconstitutional rewrite of the US constitution

    5) Active shooter at public venue /business

    6) Active shooter at school /college campus

    7) Addictive Entertainment

    8) Advanced Technology disaster

    9) Agenda 21/Agenda 2030

    10) Airplane crash

    11) Anarchy

    12) Antibiotic resistant bacteria, viruses, fungi

    13) Armageddon

    14) Atmospheric River storm/severe flooding

    15) Automotive accident

    16) Avalanche

    17) Aztlan /Reconquista Uprising

    18) Bank closure /failure /mandated bank holiday

    19) Bath Salt drug zombies

    20) Becoming a refugee

    21) Becoming lost in the megalopolis

    22) Becoming lost in the wilderness

    23) Bee Colony Collapse Disorder (fungi /pesticide /parasites) crop pollination failures

    24) Biblical flood

    25) Biblical plagues

    26) Biological war /attack

    27) Black hole appearance

    28) Blizzard

    29) Boat wreck /ship wreck

    30) Brownout

    31) Carrington Event /Massive solar flare

    32) Celestial object impact /near miss

    33) Central US major tectonic /volcanic activity

    34) Chemical war /attack

    35) Civil war

    36) Civilian Disarmament

    37) Cloning of dangerous plants /animals

    38) Cloning of humans

    39) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)

    40) Communication restrictions

    41) Corporate /industrial flight from the US

    42) Crime wave

    43) Criminal Coup of the government

    44) Crop failures

    45) Dam failure /collapse

    46) Dangerous wildlife confrontation

    47) Dark matter /anti-matter incident

    48) Declining drinking water aquifer levels

    49) Destruction /loss of the middle class

    50) DHS take over

    51) Draconian police powers /actions

    52) Drinking water aquifer contamination /poisoning

    53) Drought

    54) Dust bowl

    55) Earth Core Cooling

    56) Earth orbit shift

    57) Earthquake

    58) Eco-system collapse

    59) Electrical Blackout

    60) Electro Magnetic Pulse attack (EMP attack)

    61) Electro Magnetic Pulse from coronal mass ejection or other solar activity

    62) Encroachment of drinking water aquifers by seawater

    63) Environmental disaster

    64) Epidemic

    65) Ethnic war

    66) Evidence of extraterrestrials

    67) Exodus of important skill holders from the US

    68) Exodus of the wealthy /rich from the US

    69) Extraterrestrial biological contamination

    70) Federal police force w /broad powers circumventing civilian protections

    71) Fire storm

    72) Flash mob violence /criminal event

    73) Flash flood

    74) Floods, general

    75) Food shortages /price increases

    76) Forest fire /wild fire

    77) Fuel shortages /price increases

    78) Fungal infections of food staples crops

    79) Gamma ray burst from neutron star collision

    80) Global cooling /Ice Age

    81) Global nuclear war

    82) Global warming

    83) Gold /PM recall

    84) Gold /PM restrictions

    85) Government Tyranny

    86) Grand Alignment induced tectonic activity

    87) Great Lakes drainage event (to the Ohio River due to tectonic activity)

    88) Ground surface tilt /rise /subsidence from tectonics /magma movement

    89) Gulf Stream shutdown /subsidence

    90) Hail

    91) Hazmat incident

    92) Heat wave

    93) Home gardening restrictions

    94) Home invasion

    95) Hostage situation

    96) Hostile extraterrestrials

    97) House /apartment /building fire

    98) Hurricane

    99) Hypercane

    100) Ice Storm

    101) Infrastructure collapse /failures

    102) Invasion of the US

    103) Invasive plant and animal species

    104) Kidnapped

    105) Lahar

    106) Landslide /mudslide

    107) Large scale JIT delivery failures

    108) Limited nuclear war /attack

    109) Limnic eruption

    110) Local major accident (aircraft /auto /rail /building)

    111) Local major crime

    112) Local /regional gun grab

    113) Lockdown at school /college campus

    114) Lockdown at work /business

    115) Loss of job

    116) Magnetic pole shift

    117) Major conventional war

    118) Major economic depression

    119) Major nuclear power plant incident

    120) Major Tax Rate increases

    121) Martial Law

    122) Massive tectonic activity

    123) Massive /rapid increase in the poverty level /numbers

    124) Maunder Minimum type low sunspot cycle triggered ice age

    125) Medical emergency

    126) Mega Quake (New Madrid seismic zone, Cascadia subduction zone)

    127) Mega Tsunami (La Palma, West Antarctic Ice Sheet)

    128) Mega Volcano (Yellowstone Caldera, etc.)

    129) Methane Hydrate release

    130) Mississippi River bed change

    131) National bankruptcy /default

    132) Nationwide /global economic breakdown

    133) Nemesis induced Oort Cloud meteorite rain

    134) New colonial activity (France /Spain /Portugal /Italy /Germany /Japan /China /Russia /Great Britain /Brazil /Venezuela)

    135) New, more restrictive assault weapons ban

    136) New World Order (NWO)

    137) Out of control bio-genetics /bio-technology

    138) Out of control Nano-technology /robotics

    139) Overpopulation

    140) Ozone layer depletion

    141) Pandemic /Syndemic pandemic

    142) Peaceful extraterrestrials

    143) Peak oil

    144) Personal financial breakdown

    145) Personal /family catastrophic illness

    146) Personal impact crimes

    147) Pestilence

    148) Political unrest /backlash

    149) Pyroclastic flow

    150) Racial war

    151) Rainforest deforestation

    152) Rampant inflation

    153) Rapid Population Decline

    154) Refugees

    155) Regional climate change

    156) Released /escaped dangerous zoo /circus animals

    157) Religious war

    158) Resource war

    159) Rogue Military Activity

    160) Rotational pole shift

    161) Runaway GM food plant failure /cross contamination

    162) Safe deposit box (non-bank) restrictions /closures

    163) Sand /dust storms /Haboob

    164) Sea level drop

    165) Sea level rise

    166) Second coming

    167) Seceding of one or more states from the US

    168) Sentient computer(s) take over

    169) Severe Lightning

    170) Sheriffs lose arrest rights /authority

    171) Shipwrecked /marooned

    172) Shortages of goods and services for a variety of reasons

    173) Sinkholes

    174) Slow rise flood

    175) Social break down

    176) Solar radiation increase /decrease

    177) State bankruptcy /default

    178) Strikes /boycotts /embargoes /price controls

    179) Sub-atomic particle research accident

    180) Sudden regional major population shift

    181) Super-storm

    182) Tailings pond dam failure /collapse

    183) Terrorism of all types

    184) The Anti-Christ

    185) Tornado

    186) Total gun ban /confiscation

    187) Train wreck

    188) Travel restrictions

    189) Tsunami

    190) UN Small Arms Treaty

    191) UN /One World Government

    192) US civilian coup

    193) US military coup

    194) US revolution

    195) Utilities failures

    196) Vehicle breakdown /stranded

    197) Volcano

    198) Water shortages

    199) Water system contamination /poisoning

    200) Wealth redistribution (by currency exchange /tax rates)

    201) Weapons restrictions

    202) Weather Modification attack

    203) Widespread civil unrest /riots

    204) Wild animal rampage

    205) World Population dramatic increase

    206) Zombies /vampires /werewolves /other supernatural dangers (Just kidding! Sort of. The mere belief in can be/cause a disaster.)




    It has been obvious to me for a long time that there is another whole list of potential disasters that, while some are mentioned in the above list as primary events to prepare for, there are some things that will not likely occur, or even be possible before a major disaster occurs and/or we wind up in a PAW (Post Apocalyptic World) situation. The things listed below are not only possible, but rather likely in many different scenarios.



    1) Millions of abandoned pets eating food supplies needed by humans, and possibly attacking humans

    2) Hundreds of thousands of swimming pools, especially in urban and suburban areas left with water in them that will breed billions of mosquitoes that could carry diseases

    3) Abandoned nuclear power plants that were not safely shut down manually or automatically at the outset of the disaster that could eventually have radioactive materials escape and contaminate a locality, and possibly a larger area.

    4) Abandoned dangerous chemicals (including chemical and/or biological warfare materials), the containers of which could be damaged, releasing the chemicals into residential areas, or contaminating areas to a very dangerous degree. Could be from damaged /deteriorating /flooded research facilities; manufacturing plants, transport vehicles, end-user plants, farms and farm supply facilities (in case of dangerous farm chemicals), or military storage sites.

    5) Abandoned toxic/flammable waste dumps that could release their contents into the environment

    6) Landfills that could catch fire and burn uncontrollably, releasing hazardous smoke, even radioactive smoke in some cases

    7) Oil and gas pipelines, that once they are without constant maintenance will deteriorate and begin leaking their contents into the environment

    8) Explosion risk from heavy explosive gasses in low areas and buildings (propane, methane, etc.)

    9) While I do not believe Nuclear Winter will occur due to fires started by nuclear weapons, in the absence of highly trained and well equipped firefighters, there is almost a certainty that there will be huge forest fires that will burn out of control, often in the vary areas where preppers set up their facilities

    10) Areas with closely spaced residential, commercial, and industrial buildings could easily be destroyed on a very large scale without benefit of modern firefighting capabilities

    11) Raw sewage released from damaged /deteriorating /flooded treatment facilities /collection pipe system

    12) Water and food sources contaminated from any of the above

    13) Human food (plant and animal) mutated into dangerous/unhealthy types by any of the above

    14) Explosion risk from heavy explosive gasses in low areas and buildings (propane, methane, etc.)

    15) High risk of physical danger going into damaged /deteriorating /flooded buildings /structures /locations that have high value salvage materials /goods

    16) High risk of physical danger using damaged /deteriorating /missing /flooded highway hazard crossings (bridges /over passes /etc.) to avoid going around

    17) Release of dangerous animals/pets from public zoos /private zoos /homes

    18) The development of the ever popular MZB (Mutant Zombie Bikers) (no offense to real bikers) and other raiding type groups

    19) The spread of aggressive religious groups

    20) Anarchy (for a while)

    21) Loss of animal /plant /human habitats due to local contaminates

    22) Loss of animal /plant /human habitats due to changes in weather



    There are some additional ‘disasters’ that affect only one or two people, or a very small group. Some are relative minor when talking major disasters that can affect millions of people.


    However, when one or more of these things happens to an individual or a family, it is just as large of a disaster to them, as a major disaster is to a large number of people.


    These are things that can happen to almost anyone, anytime. Unless a person is aware that they can happen, maintains good situational awareness, and is prepared to deal with them by having the education and training, and in some instances, the right tools and supplies they can turn into very serious events. The following is a list of this type of various dangers:


    1) Food Poisoning

    2) Choking, Suffocation & Strangulation

    3) CO/CO2 Poisoning (Home/Car)

    4) Falling (Stairs, Ice, Tripping, Being pushed/bumped, etc.)

    5) Falling Objects

    6) Street Fights

    7) Physical Abuse & Rape

    8) Bee, Wasp, & Scorpion Stings

    9) Snake, Spider, & Tick Bites

    10) Animal Attacks (Exotics, Dogs, Cats, Birds, Reptiles, Sharks & Other Sea Life)

    11) Pet Attacks (Dogs, Cats, Birds, Reptiles)

    12) Weather-extreme Dangers (Sun Burn, Heat Exhaustion/Stroke, Hypothermia)

    13) Fainting

    14) Drowning

    15) Personal Crimes (Pickpocketing, Robbery, Purse Snatching, Auto Theft, Road Rage, Physical Assault, Firearm Assault, Attempted Murder, etc.)

    16) Mental Health Issues (Attempted Suicide, Severe Depression, Violent Mental Patients, Seizures)

    17) Personal Accidents (Kitchen/Bath, Home, Farm, Ranch, Falls, Electrical Shock, Electrocution, etc.)

    18) Kidnappings (Self, Children, Friends, Business Partners, etc.)

    19) Overly aggressive/abusive authority figures (Police, Government office clerks, Security personnel, Government field operatives, etc.)

    20) Blacking out (Drunk, Medication overdose, Medication problem, Physical impact, etc.)

    21) Firearm AD (Accidental Discharge)

    22) Lightning Strike impact or near miss

    23) Vehicular Accidents and Breakdowns (Personal vehicles, Boats/Boating, Personal Aircraft, Motorcycles, Bicycles, Scooters, etc.)

    24) Road Rage Event


    Just my opinion.
     
    Last edited: May 7, 2019
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  3. twp

    twp Administrator Staff Member

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    @Jerry D Young
    Wow again...
    Thanks for the effort you have put into compiling these lists.

    I'm debating whether to even try to add these to my Prepper Threat Analysis. It will take several days and some serious thought, on my part, to assign a set of values for the analysis. Some of them I already have and they are mostly those which I felt to be more likely to happen to me, in my location. Some I have truthfully never thought of (Addictive Entertainment... subliminal indoctrination via the media...)

    Going through your list (206 items!) I can see many which fit my category of more likely to impact me directly. I will concentrate on these.
     
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  4. jdp

    jdp Member

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    @Jerry D Young had a good book on addictive entertainment. Penny for your thoughts? I think it was called.
     
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  5. twp

    twp Administrator Staff Member

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    I've read that book by Jerry, Very Good! (needs a sequel... hint, hint:p)
     
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  6. jdp

    jdp Member

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    Can't argue that.
     
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  7. Jerry D Young

    Jerry D Young Active Member

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    Thank you, guys.

    twp, many of the things on the list are elements of a disaster that may or may not occur with any given event. Take volcanoes, for example. You have the actual eruption with the earthquakes. Other components of volcanic eruptions may or may not occur in many of them. Ashfalls, pyroclastic flows, lahars, magma bombs, lava flows, mud/rock slides, avalanches, massive tectonic activity, dam failures, and several more. I do not list them individually on my threat analysis spreadsheet. There are others like that, too, that are part and parcel of an overall event. Because each requires specific actions and preps, I list them separately as a disaster, but for threat analysis it is the combined effect of the particular volcano(es) in an area that is important.

    Just my opinion.
     
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  8. twp

    twp Administrator Staff Member

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    Living as we do, near several volcanoes, I do watch the USGS monitoring stations.

    Other threats require that I watch other sources of news, some more reliable than others... There are some sources which go out of their way to sound as shrill as possible, which reduces their credibility in my mind. Too much "crying wolf"... They don't call it "fake news" without cause.

    Perhaps having a list of the more (and less) reliable sources should be part of a Prepper watch plan. I hate to admit it, but knowing what the shrill voices are saying does offer some hints about how the politics-of-the-moment are trending. But they are hard to listen to for any length of time...:rolleyes:

    I do take your meaning that many of the items on your list are linked in terms of cause and effect. That makes it easier to sort them in my own analysis. I may have to add a sub-category of possible effects surrounding each threat. Thinking...
     
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